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New York University. Mindeli L. The Society and Economy, 9, in Russian. The society and economy, 10, in Russian. Microeconomics, 5, in Russian. Novikov, D.
Active Forecast. Ostapyuk S. In: Bestuzhev-Lada I. Pletnyov K. Russell S. Artificial Intelligence. A Modern Approach. Moscow: Williams in Russian.
Science and Innovation Policy: Russia and the World, Moscow: Nauka in Russian. Sidelnikov U. Technology Expert scenario forecasting.
Moscow: MAI in Russian. Sokolov A. Forsyth: A Look into the Future. Forsyth, 1, 1, in Russian. Zubova L.
Newsletter, 6, in Russian. Moscow: ZISN. This research is focused on the approbation of Seasonal Component AutoRegressive with exogenous factors SCARX forecasting models class on two price area of the Russian electricity market.
The SCARX model consists of extrapolation of long-term trend-seasonal component and independent forecasting of short-term seasonal-stochastic component of electricity price.
The performance evaluation was carried out using weighted weekly and daily mean absolute errors, as well as the formal statistical procedure of the prediction ability comparison - Diebold-Mariano test DM-test.
The historical data of price and planed consumption in the Europe-Ural and Siberia price areas of the Russian electricity exchange were used for the numerical experiment, while testing period is week or days long.
The same results are proved by the formal DM-test carried for each hour in trading day. In order to overcome the problem of a priori selection of smoothing parameters, it is proposed to use various methods of forecast combinations.
Keywords: electricity price forecasting, seasonal component autoregressive, wavelet-smoothng, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Diebold-Mariano test. Energy Economics, 56, Carmon R.
New York: Springer. Casazza J. Hoboken: Wiley. Chuchueva I. Postgraduate thesis. Conejo A. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 3, De Jong C.
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 10, 3, Diebold F. Comparing Predictive Accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, Eydeland A.
Energy and Power Risk Management. New Jersey: Wiley. Fedorova E. Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Power Engineering, 3, in Russian. Haldrup N. Energy Economics, 32, Hodrick R. Postwar U. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29, 1, Hyndman R. Forecasting: Principles and Practice. Janczura J. Energy Economics, 38, Lisi F. Maciejowska K.
International Journal of Forecasting, 32, 3, Misiorek A. Non-Linear Time Series Models. Nogales F. Nowotarski J. Energy Economics, 46, Energy Economics, 39, Energy Economics, 57, Val' P.
Weron R. International Journal of Forecasting, 30, Energy Economics, 48, Danilin V. In developing a business plan, take part in almost all company departments, such as purchasing department, production department or the planning and Economic Department, Finance Department, Sales Department and others.
Each unit develops its own section of the plan, on the basis of their specific objectives, which did not always coincide with the objectives of the company as a whole.
This raises the problem of harmonizing these decisions with the company's goals. There are different approaches to solving the problem of harmonization.
For example, vertical alignment, when units are in detail its decisions in aggregated form and pass them in the direction where on that basis accepted the final version of the plan of the company and the results are on the level of units for rework.
This article focuses on the development of a system of models horizontal harmonization of planning decisions between units.
To solve this problem, the methodology of the sequence of decision-making entities in the form of an iterative procedure based on system models.
The system consists of a model production plan in view of the expansion of capacities, model financial plan plan for profits and losses, planned balance and cash flow plan , the company's marketing plan model and model supply plan given the inverse relationships between models.
The example shows that after a number of iterations units receive a consistent routine decision corresponding to the objectives of the company as a whole.
Keywords: functional units, production and financial divisions, the first division of supply and sales, negotiate solutions, system models, stages iteration the formulation of the plan.
Consistent Management of Active Production Systems. Bagrinovskiy K. Basis of the Harmonization of Planning Decisions. Brealey R.
Principles of Corporate Finance. Brigham E. Financial Management. Saint Petersburg: Economic School in Russian.
Cheng F. Corporate Finance: Theory, Methods and Practice. Crass M. Mathematics and Its Applications in Matematicheskom Education.
Moscow: Business in Russian. Economics and mathematical methods, 51, 4, in Russian. Horne J. Fundamentals of Financial Management.
Karlberg K. Business Analysis Using Microsoft Excel. Mironoseckij N. Novosibirsk: Nauka in Russian. Pleshchynski A. Portugal V. Planning Models.
Ross C. Fundamentals of Corporate Finance. Moscow: Laboratory of Basic Knowledge in Russian. Shapiro J. Modeling the Supply Chain. Saint Petersburg: Peter in Russian.
Wentzel E. Operations Research. Zaitsev M. Moscow: Delo in Russian. The article offers methodological approaches to the study of features and differences in the population's assessments of living conditions in the regions of Russia.
An attempt is made to build aggregated indices that characterize the economic growth potential, the aggregate opinion and estimates of the population of regions, the social concern of citizens and the level of public security.
For this purpose, we use data from special sociological surveys and official statistics on 47 subjects of the Russian Federation.
Aggregated indices are calculated using the principal component method. Statistical relationships between the constructed indices are investigated, a regression model is constructed that characterizes the dependence of the population's satisfaction on living conditions from the level of economic potential, concern and trust to law enforcement agencies.
A comparative analysis of the possibilities of economic growth of regions, levels of satisfaction and concern of the population is carried out. The dynamics of economic potential growth in the regions of the Russian Federation is also analyzed, taking into account the possibility of forecasting and application in social management.
Keywords: regions of Russia, sociological research, quality of life, social concern, economic potential, regional security, main components method, regression analysis, conditional forecast.
JEL Classification: C Analysis of the Quality and Lifestyle of the Population. Econometric Approach. Aivasyan S. Applied Econometrics, 1, in Russian.
Balatsky E. Factors of Life Satisfaction: Measurement and Evaluation. Monitoring of Public Opinion, 4, 76 , in Russian. Davydov A.
Index of social disadvantage. Sociological research, 10, in Russian. Desai M. London: Verso. Dzolo D. Democracy and Complexity: A Realistic Approach.
Gavrilets Y. Statistical analysis of the social tension factors in Russia. Economics and Mathematical Methods, 1, in Russian.
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Melde dich an oder registriere dich bei Facebook, um dich mit Freunden, Verwandten. Text size A A A. Bob grew up in New York. At the age of 15, he enlisted in the Merchant Marines.
Once out of the Merchant Marines, he became a jockey. Afterwards, he began his career as an entrepreneur, owning and operating multiple stores.
He was also an auctioneer and owned the Auction House in Wilmington. In his spare time, Bob was an avid boater. He often spent many hours just cruising around marinas and admiring all the boats.
He was also a member of the Coast Guard. Bob is survived by his children, Robert L. He is also survived by his long-time companion, Anne Picard.
In addition to his parents, he was predeceased by his two brothers. Calling hours will be held on Friday, December 13, from 3 to 5 p.
His work also received a special prize at the exhibition of Croatian painting at the Paris World's Fair in  He established his art studio in his own home in Rokovo Perivoj Roko's Park , which was near the Vila Auer, his parent's villa, where he had grown up.
Along with his wife, the painter Leopoldina Auer-Schmidt , he led a private school while also teaching at the technical school and holding a professorship at the Academy of Fine Arts, University of Zagreb.
Auer's style is typically associated with the Secession due to his studies at the Viennese and Munich academies being precisely during the time that the Secession was on the ascent on the cultural landscape of Central Europe.
Steiermark, Floristische Arbeitsgemeinschaft, Gredleriana, 2: Pagitz K. Verein Innsbruck, Gredleriana, Pedrotti F.
Studi Trentini di scienze Naturali — Acta Biologica, Studi Trentini Sc. Agiati, 6: Perazza G. Rovereto, 10 : Pignatti S.
Il gruppo di Ranunculus auricomus L. Pils G. Linzer biol. Sagorski E. Schippmann U. Boissiera, Schroeder F. Senoner S. Diplomarbeit Univ. Soest J.
Soldano A. Oenothera, in Italia Onagraceae. Brescia, Spitaler R. Szelag Z. Teppner H. Phyton Horn, Austria , Gredleriana, 9: Wien, B, Wallossek C.
Weimarck G. Notiser, Wetschnig W. Widder F. Wilhalm T. Floristische Rundbriefe, 32 1 : Gredleriana, 1: In: Haller R. In: Kranebitter P.
Gredleriana, 6: Gredleriana, 7: In: Wilhalm T. Beck R. Stockner W. Schwienbacher E. Gredleriana, 2 : Gredleriana, 3: Tratter W. Wirth H. Gredleriana, 8: Zemmer F.
Gredleriana, 4 : Zhang L. Zidorn C. Zippel E. Zuccarini J. Flora, La maggior parte dei dati si basa su recenti rilevamenti sul campo.
In: Hellrigl K. Attualmente sono soprattutto Simone Ballini, Florian Stauder, Karl-Heinz Steinberger e Vito Zingerle che nell'ambito di diversi progetti e rilevazioni private partecipano attivamente allo studio della fauna di aracnidi dell'Alto Adige.
La tassonomia e la nomenclatura delle specie trattate seguono il catalogo online di Platnick N. Per i nomi tedeschi delle specie si fa riferimento a Bellmann H.
Ausserer A. Ballini S. Stauder F. In: Schatz H. Haller R. Brignoli P. Buchar J. Chemini C. Genova, : Christandl-Peskoller H.
Innsbruck , Alpin-Biol. Dahl F. Nach statistischen Untersuchungen dargestellt. Denis J. Atti Ist. Gantenbein B.
Fet V. Barker M. Koch, and E. Knoflach B. Pfaller K. Contrib nat Hist Koch L. Ferdinandeum Innsbruck , Kofler A.
Logunov D. Lugetti G. Redia B, Marcuzzi G. Veneto Sci. Arti, Cl. Classe di scienze matematiche e naturali. Venezia Tridentina, 15 1 : Martens J.
Die Tierwelt Deutschlands. Gustav Fischer, Jena. Millidge A. Muster C. Philodromus aureolus group. Denisia Noflatscher M. Forest Department, Autonomous Province of Bolzano.
In: Gepp J. Palmgren P. Helsinki, Pantini P. Arthropoda Selecta Paoletti M. Schweiggl U. Pedobiologia, Plangger H. Dissertation Padua. Fermi put beryllium powder and radium emanation i.
The radon emits alpha particles, and when these strike beryllium nuclei, neutrons are released. The neutrons penetrate the walls of the glass container and can then act on materials placed nearby.
Fermi brought a large number of materials, either in element or compound form, near to the neutron source for irradiation.
The irradiated materials were then placed in front of a Geiger counter. Many elements were found to emit beta particles for some time after irradiation, and so verified the induced radioactivity.
To study induced radioactivity of uranium, Fermi took a solution of uranium nitrate, from which all radioactive daughter products had been removed, and brought it near his neutron source.
With a Geiger counter he was able to show that the solution became radioactive and emitted beta particles after irradiation.
The analysis of the decay curve showed that not only one but at least five different radioactive half lives were produced.
Fermi emphasized that it was still uncertain whether the different radioactive decays occur in series one after the other or in parallel.
Fermi was able to make a chemical separation of one of the new radioelements, which had a half life of 13 minutes.
He did this by adding manganese salt and concentrated nitric acid to the uranium nitrate solution, then heating to the boiling point and adding sodium chlorate.
The resulting manganese dioxide precipitate was found to contain almost all of the beta activity with the 13 minute half life. Fermi next tried to show that the radioelement which is responsible for this beta activity was not an isotope of any known element near uranium.
To show this he added known beta emitting isotopes of the following elements to the acid solution of uranium nitrate: protactinum 91 , thorium 90 , actinium 89 , radium 88 , bismuth 83 , and lead When sodium chlorate is added to precipitate the manganese dioxide, none of these beta-emitting isotopes are found in the precipitate, according to Fermi.
Since the unidentified new radioelement does precipitate with manganese, and since it could not be an isotope of radon 86 or francium 87 either according to its properties, Fermi concludes that it might be the unknown element 93 or perhaps 94 or This method of proof is not valid.
Fermi compared his new beta emitter not only with the immediate neighbor of uranium, namely protactinium, but also considered several other elements down to lead.
This indicates that he thought a series of consecutive decays was possible with emission of electrons, protons, and helium nuclei , which eventually formed the radioelement with the 13 minute half life.
It is not clear why he did not investigate the element polonium 84 which is also between uranium 92 and lead 82 , and why he chose to stop at lead.
The old view that the radioactive elements form a continuous series which ends at lead or thallium 81 is just what the previously mentioned experiments of Curie and Joliot had disproved.
Fermi therefore ought to have compared his new radioelement with all known elements. It is known from analytic chemistry that numerous elements will precipitate with manganese dioxide if they are present as compounds, atoms, or colloids in a nitric acid solution.
The resulting manganese dioxide precipitate was then tested chemically and spectroscopically for the presence of other elements.
As previously noted, Fermi also did not investigate if polonium 84 goes into the manganese precipitate. An experiment was carried out with polonium which showed that this element does go almost completely into the MnO 2 precipitate.
One could assume equally well that when neutrons are used to produce nuclear disintegrations, some distinctly new nuclear reactions take place which have not been observed previously with proton or alpha-particle bombardment of atomic nuclei.
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A considerable number of critics, as well as the director himself, attributed the film's commercial failure to its release at roughly the same time as Star Wars , which instantly became a pop-culture phenomenon.
The film has enjoyed a critical re-evaluation, and some critics have lauded it as an overlooked masterpiece,     perhaps "the last undeclared [one] of the American '70s".
The film opens with a prologue that consists of four segments described by critics as "vignettes". Nilo Rabal , an elegantly dressed man, enters a flat in Veracruz.
Nilo immediately executes the unsuspecting tenant with a silenced revolver and proceeds to casually walk out of the building and onto the square.
A group of Palestinian militants disguised as Jews causes an explosion near the Damascus Gate in Jerusalem , after which they take shelter at their hideout, where they assemble weaponry and plan their escape.
After getting surrounded by the military, they split up; one is killed and one is apprehended. The only one who manages to escape is Kassem Amidou.
The segment finishes as he helplessly stares from a crowd at his captured companion. While discussing a book his wife is editing, Victor Manzon Cremer discovers an anniversary gift from her: a watch with a special dedication.
After meeting with the president of the Paris Stock Exchange , where he is accused of fraud, Victor is given 24 hours to provide collateral so the charges can be dropped.
Victor meets his business partner and brother-in-law, Pascal, and they quarrel; Victor insists that Pascal contact his father for financial assistance.
Victor dines with his wife and her friend in a glamorous restaurant; he later receives a message from a butler that Pascal is waiting outside.
When he learns that Pascal's father has refused to help, Victor is adamant that they try again. He walks his partner to a car, but Pascal commits suicide.
Faced with impending doom, Victor leaves both his country and wife. An Irish gang robs a church with rival connections in Elizabeth that organizes bingo games, and they shoot one of the priests.
Back in their car, the gang members engage in a heated argument that causes Jackie Scanlon Scheider , the driver, to lose concentration and collide with a truck.
Everyone is killed but Jackie, who escapes with serious injuries. The wounded priest turns out to be the brother of Carlo Ricci, a Mafia director who also controlled the flow of money in the church and is determined to kill Jackie at all costs.
Jackie meets with his friend Vinnie, who reveals his fate and finds a suitable place for him to escape. The only option Jackie has is to agree. Kassem, Victor, and Jackie all assume fake identities and end up in Porvenir, a remote village in Latin America.
Its conditions provide a stark contrast to their previous lives. The village economy is heavily reliant on an American oil company.
Kassem befriends a man called 'Marquez' John , presumably a Nazi war veteran. They all live in extreme poverty and earn meager salaries.
All want out, but their savings are inadequate for emigration. After some time, Nilo arrives in the village, raising suspicions. In the meantime, an oil well explodes, and the only way to extinguish the fire is to use dynamite.
Since the only available dynamite has been improperly stored in a remote depot, the nitroglycerin contained inside has become highly unstable; the faintest vibration could cause an explosion.
The company seeks four drivers to man two vehicles. Kassem, Victor, Jackie and 'Marquez' are offered the job, but they have to assemble the trucks using scrap parts.
Shortly before their departure, Nilo kills and replaces 'Marquez', which angers Kassem. The four drivers embark upon a perilous journey of over miles, facing many hazards and internal conflicts.
Despite their differences, they are forced to co-operate. They traverse a rotten bridge during a violent thunderstorm, Nilo and Jackie nearly losing their truck in the process.
The team is forced to use one of the boxes of dynamite to destroy a massive fallen tree blocking their path. When Nilo and Jackie stop at the scene of the destruction, bandits surround them in an attempted robbery.
They kill the bandits but Nilo is mortally wounded, soon dying from his injuries. Now alone, Jackie struggles to stay sane, overwhelmed by hallucinations and flashbacks.
When his truck's engine dies just two miles short of the destination, he is forced to carry the remaining nitroglycerin on foot.
At the bar back in Porvenir, Jackie is given legal citizenship and payment for the job by the oil company, as well as an offer of another job. Before he leaves, he asks a scrub woman for a dance.
As the two dance, Carlo Ricci's henchmen, along with Jackie's old friend Vinnie, emerge from a taxi outside. They walk into the bar and the screen cuts to the end credits.
The film's title refers to one of the trucks, which has the name "Sorcerer" painted across the hood the other is named "Lazaro" ; there is no supernatural or magical character or event.
As director William Friedkin went location scouting in Ecuador and researched the peculiar ornaments on cargo trucks he had seen there, he noticed there were names painted on them, which ranged from relatives to mythological references.
Then after some time struggling to think on another moniker, a listen to the Miles Davis album Sorcerer served as an inspiration to name the other truck, though the word was painted in French: "Sorcier".
Friedkin then decided to change his working title Ballbreaker for Sorcerer , which he described as "an intentional but ill-advised reference to The Exorcist ".Stalwart defenders, Supports control the battlefield by augmenting allies and locking down enemies. Test your skills against players from all over Europe by battling your way up the competitive ranked ladder. Труд «Письма Арефы - новый источник о политических событиях в Византии гг.». Г¶sterr. Romme Formel D Jobs Vergebene Jobs, компиляция должна быть составлена до г. Steer Steer G. Hugo Ripelin von Strassburg: zur Rezeptionsund Rome, October, Schaltungsträger lassen sich so elektrome- hohes Maß planare Schaltungsträger, flexible und starr- lassen sich N. Minimal: г Intel Pentium IV/ AMD Athlon. Bestes Entertainment und erstklassigen Service vereint das CASINO MERKUR- SPIELOTHEK in seiner Filiale. Die Gäste erwartet ein breites Spektrum an. Liste der beliebtesten Spielothek in Gunzenhausen; ☆ Preise,☎ Bismarckanlage Weißenburg in Bayern Holzingen / Hier finden Sie Unternehmen, Behörden, Vereine, Anwälte usw. aus ganz. Prof. Dr. Anne-Julia Zwierlein CV. Prof. Dr. Anne-Julia Zwierlein, Chair of English Literature and Culture. Prof. Zwierlein studied at the universities of Bonn, Oxford (Exeter College) and MГјnster () and received scholarships from the ‘Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes’ (German National Academic Foundation) and the ‘DAAD’ (German Academic Exchange Service).